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Recently, Sidoli corrected his last conclusion, recognizing that the only eclipse partially consistent with the data of Dioptra 35, in the five centuries between second century bc and third century ad , is the one identified by Neugebauer Sidoli The present discussion on the dating of Hero is based on factual and interpretation-laden data.
To the first category belong the astronomical data concerning ancient eclipses, available in tables set out in a variety of forms such as the NASA website ; Footnote 2 to the second category belong the text of Dioptra 35 and the probabilistic treatment of the eclipses occurring in the period of time in which Hero is supposed to have lived. The relationships between these factors have formed the crux of a debate that, in our view, has been developed without a clear distinction between facts and assumptions.
Thus, the hypotheses of the arguments set forth by the scholars involved in the debate have sometimes been defined without precision; in some cases, they are even marred by circular reasoning. With regard to the first two factors, although a number of ambiguities and obscurities in the text of Dioptra 35 persist, it seems clear that the only eclipse that actually happened and that fits relatively well, both the data for Alexandria provided in the text of Dioptra 35 and the presumed life span of Heron, is that of March 13, ad This, as we shall see, is crucial to a consistent probabilistic approach to the issue.
Footnote 3. In this paper, we shall review these factors and propose an analysis based mainly on philological arguments but also on statistical ones. The goal is to set up a framework for the interpretation of the text and a well-founded estimate of the probability that a random date and hour fits a certain eclipse that actually happened in Alexandria on that date and at that hour, within a selected period of time.
In Sect. Once the timeframe and the interpretative framework are fixed, in Sect. First, we define a simple probabilistic model derived from our interpretation of the text.
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